Wall Street stock analysts are expecting a significant decline in 2023, as three top banks have predicted that the US stock market could fall by more than 20 percent next year. The S&P 500 stock index has declined 13% since October, but it has recently recovered and is back to 4000.
Large banks are under the impression that the recent stock market rise was only temporary and will not last long. For an extended time, stocks on Wall Street have been slumping because many investors are anxious about the potential for a recession in the near future.
As 2023 goes on, there will be a lot of ups and downs with stocks as earnings take a hit from the recession. According to Morgan Stanley, based in New York, the S&P 500 index could drop 24% within the first four months of 2023. This would put the stock index between 3,000 and 3,300. According to Mike Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, the bear market is not over, and 2023 will be a volatile year with lots of ups and downs.
Similarly, according to Bank of America, if the current trend continues, stocks in the S&P 500 could drop by 24% and fall to 3000. The main reason for the crash would be lower business and consumer spending impacting corporate earnings adversely. Additionally, the bank is predicting that the US economy will have a 0.4% drop in growth during the first quarter of next year. The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening policies might also dry up market liquidity by cutting back $95 billion in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities from its $9 trillion balance sheet each month.
Deutsche Bank predicts that US stocks will fall by over 25% in the third quarter of the next financial year, contrary to the predictions made by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. The team also predicts that stock prices will rebound by 2023, provided the recession doesn’t continue for more than a few quarters. Deutsche Bank’s 2023 outlook claims that the global capital market will experience a significant decrease in value due to increasing interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which will, as a result, slow down the US economy.
The American Federal Reserve was obliged to lift interest rates when high inflation surfaced as a consequence of spiking oil prices. Increasing rates, this action works to quell inflation overall.
Rising interest rates decrease cash flow in the economy, which then lowers commodity demand and, finally, inflation. However, a primary drawback of increasing interest rates is that it might lead to an economic recession in which people don’t spend money on necessities. When people spend less money, companies make less profit. This usually causes the stock market to react negatively.